PRESS RELEASE
FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY STILL MAINTAINED, KSSK STRENGTHENING COORDINATION AND POLICIES AMID RISING GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY
Number: 03/KSSK/Pers/2025
Jakarta, 24 April 2025
1.Financial System Stability (FSS) in Q1 2025 was still well-maintained despite increasing global economic and financial market uncertainty. The uncertainty was primarily triggered by developments surrounding the US administration’s reciprocal tariff policy and the escalation of trade wars. Entering Q2 2025, global downside risks remain high and must be monitored and anticipated continuously. The KSSK (Financial System Stability Committee), consisting of the Minister of Finance, Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), Chair of the Board of Commissioners of the Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan/OJK), and Chair of the Board of Commissioners of the Deposit Insurance Corporation (Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan/LPS), held the second regular KSSK meeting of 2025 on Thursday, 17 April 2025. The meeting agreed to maintain heightened vigilance and strengthen coordination and policy synergy among KSSK member institutions to mitigate the potential spillover effects of global risk factors, while bolstering domestic economic and financial sectors.
2. In Q1 2025, global economic uncertainty increased due to the US Government's import tariff policy. The policy prompted a tariff war and is expected to negatively impact economic growth in the US, China and globally, while also exacerbating the uncertainty plaguing global financial markets. The policy also spurred risk-averse behavior among investors, causing a decline in US Treasury yields and weakening the US Dollar Index (DXY), amid rising expectations of a Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cut. Capital flows shifted from the US to countries and assets considered safe havens, particularly financial assets in Europe and Japan, as well as gold. Meanwhile, capital outflows from emerging markets persisted, putting pressure on their currencies. In the April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF revised its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, down by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from the January 2025 forecast. This revision is due to the direct effects of escalating tariff warrant indirect effects through supply chain disruptions, increased uncertainty, and worsening sentiment. Indonesia's economic growth projection was also revised to 4.7% (-0.4 pp) for 2025, although this decline is relatively moderate compared to that of countries such as Thailand (-1.1 pp), Vietnam (-0.9 pp), the Philippines (-0.6 pp), and Mexico (-1.7 pp).
3. The deleterious effects of the tariff war were further felt when China retaliated, although more countries opted for diplomatic or negotiation routes. The tit-for-tat measures strained trade relations further, with both nations raising tariffs to over 100%. These policies increase the risks of rising inflation and declining economic growth in the US. Subsequently, the US postponed reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for non-retaliating countries but maintained a base universal tariff of 10%. Meanwhile, China’s economy continued to grow in Q1 2025, even exceeding expectations. However, it is projected to be affected by the ongoing trade tensions in the future. In response to these developments, Indonesia remains vigilant. It has proactively engaged in early mitigation efforts, particularly through negotiations with the US and continued deregulation of non-tariff barriers in collaboration with all relevant ministries/agencies. Additionally, with domestic demand remaining relatively stable—supported by aligned fiscal and monetary policies—Indonesia is expected to manage the negative impacts of global uncertainty, maintain financial system stability, and preserve economic growth momentum. Indonesia's economy is expected to continue growing sustainably.
4. Indonesia’s economic growth in Q1 2025 is projected to remain positive despite global uncertainty. Household consumption remained strong, supported by government spending on Eid holiday allowances (Tunjangan Hari Raya/THR), social expenditures, various other incentives, and a seasonal spike in demand during the Eid-ul-Fitr 1446 H celebration. Furthermore, the continued implementation of National Strategic Projects (Proyek Strategis Nasional/PSN) across regions and growing private property construction activities are expected to boost investment performance. As reflected in Indonesia’s expanding manufacturing activity, private investment remains solid, supported by business confidence. Investment, particularly in non-building sectors, continues to support economic growth, as seen in increased capital goods imports, especially heavy machinery. Meanwhile, export performance is expected to remain strong, supported by an increase in non-oil and gas exports in March 2025, especially crude palm oil (CPO), iron and steel, and electrical machinery. The government is also actively exploring the potential expansion of key exports to ASEAN+3, BRICS, and European markets amid US import tariff policies. Taking these factors into account, Indonesia's economic growth in 2025 is projected to reach around 5%.
5. The rupiah exchange rate remained stable, supported by BI’s stabilization policies amid rising global financial market uncertainty. As of 27 March 2025, the rupiah stood at IDR16,560 per USD, appreciating 0.12% point-to-point (ptp) from the end of February 2025. However, intense pressure on the rupiah occurred in the offshore market (Non-Deliverable Forward/NDF) during the domestic market closure for the long Eid-ul-Fitr holiday due to US reciprocal tariff policies. On 7 April 2025, BI intervened continuously in the offshore NDF markets in Asia, Europe, and New York to stabilize the rupiah against global pressure. This policy yielded positive results, as reflected in the controlled movement of the rupiah, which appreciated to IDR16,855 per USD on 22 April 2025, compared to IDR16,865 per USD on the first day of trading after the holiday on 8 April 2025. rupiah movements remain in line with regional currencies and within a range consistent with domestic economic fundamentals for maintaining macroeconomic stability. The rupiah is expected to remain stable, supported by BI’s commitment to exchange rate stability, attractive yields, low inflation, and a positive outlook for Indonesia’s economic growth.
6. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in March 2025 remained low and supported economic stability. The CPI rose by 1.03% year-on-year, with core inflation controlled at 2.48% yoy, in line with BI’s policy rate consistency to anchor inflation expectations. Volatile food (VF) inflation stood at 0.37% yoy, down from 0.56% in the previous month, owingto strong inflation control synergy by the Central/Regional Government Inflation Control Teams (Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Pusat/TPIP – Tim Pengendali Inflasi Daerah/TPID) through the National Food Inflation Control Movement (Gerakan Nasional Pengendalian Inflasi Pangan/GNPIP). Meanwhile, administered prices (AP) recorded shallower 3.16% yoy deflation, compared with 9.02% yoy deflation in February, mainly due to the discontinuation of the electricity tariff discount policy for households with an installed electrical capacity of below 2,200 VA. Going forward, inflation is projected to remain within the 2.5±1% target range for 2025 and 2026. Core inflation is expected to stay in check, supported by anchored expectations, adequate economic capacity, controlled imported inflation, and the positive impact of digitalization. VF inflation is projected to be managed effectively through continued inflation control synergy between the government and BI.
7. The Government Securities (SBN) market remained resilient despite heightened global uncertainty. At the end of Q1 2025, the benchmark 10-year Government Bond (Surat Utang Negara/SUN) yield fell by 2.0 bps year-to-date to 7.00%. Non-resident investor ownership increased by IDR15.23 trillion ytd (foreign ownership reached 14.30% as of 27 March 2025). Inflation expectations partly influenced yield movements in the reporting period in the US along with the Trump Administration’s policy of imposing lower tariffs on trade partners other than China. On the first day of SBN trading after the long Eid-ul-Fitr holiday (8 April 2025), SUN yields rose by 5.2 bps ytd to 7.08%, but on 22 April 2025, they declined again by 4.5 bps ytd to 6.98%. As of 22 April 2025, non-resident investors recorded a net buy of IDR12.78 trillion (foreign ownership at 14.25%).
8. State Budget (Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara/APBN) performance in Q1 2025 remained strong, as reflected in a manageable budget deficit of IDR104.2 trillion (0.43% of GDP), a positive primary balance of IDR17.5 trillion, and a cash surplus position (SILPA) of IDR145.8 trillion. As of March 2025, state revenues and grants reached IDR516.1 trillion (17.2% of the APBN target), while government spending reached IDR620.3 trillion (17.1% of the budget ceiling), tracking an upward trend in March 2025.
9. Tax revenue reached IDR400.1 trillion (16.1% of the APBN target), with a strong rebound in March 2025 at IDR134.8 trillion, compared to IDR98.9 trillion in February. March 2025 alone accounted for 41.8% of the total tax revenue for Q1 2025 of IDR322.6 trillion. This increase was supported by various tax reform programs to improve tax administration and implement Coretax. The positive trend shows that these reforms are on track, and future tax collection is expected to be more efficient, with tax revenue projected to grow optimally. Tax receipts by type, household, and economic sector indicate that the economy and consumer purchasing power generally remain strong.
10. Government spending realization in Q1 2025 reached IDR620.3 trillion (17.1% of the APBN ceiling), with a significant increase in March 2025 at IDR272.2 trillion (February 2025 realization was IDR348.1 trillion). This underscores the role of the APBN as a shock absorber in mitigating the economic turmoil, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and protecting consumer purchasing power through THR payments, subsidies (fuel, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), electricity discounts, fertilizers), and social assistance programs (such as the Family Hope Program (Program Keluarga Harapan/PKH, basic food, education assistance, national health insurance). The realization was driven by Central Government Expenditure of IDR413.2 trillion (15.3% of APBN target) and Regional Transfers of IDR207.1 trillion (22.5% of APBN target).
11. Budget financing realization is on track, reaching IDR250.0 trillion or 40.6% of the state budget (APBN) target. This consists of debt financing realization of IDR270.4 trillion (34.8% of the 2025 APBN target of IDR775.9 trillion) and non-debt financing of negative IDR20.4 trillion. Debt financing was met through a net issuance of government securities (Surat Berharga Negara/SBN) totaling IDR282.6 trillion and net loans of negative IDR12.3 trillion. Debt financing continues to be carried out prudently and in a measured manner, considering the budget deficit outlook and government liquidity, while monitoring financial market dynamics closely and maintaining a balance between cost and risk.
12. The government continues to optimize the role of the state budget (APBN) as a shock absorber, while accelerating the attainment of development targets through several policies, including:
13. The government maintains economic stability and protects public purchasing power through various measures, such as stabilizing food supply and prices, energy subsidies and compensation, distribution of various social assistance programs, microcredit programs (KUR), and support for the housing sector. To support development, the government is enhancing human capital through MBG programs, elite schools, free health checks, accelerating the eradication of extreme poverty, and completion of National Strategic Projects (PSN).
14. The government has initiated negotiations with the US Government, particularly concerning reciprocal US tariff policies, including:
15. Bank Indonesia (BI) continues to strengthen its mix of monetary, macroprudential, and payment system policies to maintain stability, while supporting sustainable economic growth. Monetary policy remains focused on maintaining stability and encouraging economic growth (pro-stability and growth), while macroprudential and payment system policies are optimized to support sustainable growth (pro-growth).
16. In this context, the BI Board of Governors Meeting (Rapat Dewan Gubernur/RDG) on April 22–23, 2025, decided to maintain the BI Rate at 5.75%, the Deposit Facility rate at 5.00%, and the Lending Facility rate at 6.50%. This decision aligns with efforts to keep 2025 and 2026 inflation within the 2.5±1% target, maintain rupiah exchange rate stability in line with fundamentals amid rising global uncertainty, and support economic growth. BI will continue monitoring inflation and the economic growth outlook in terms of considering further room for monetary easing based on rupiah exchange rate movements. BI has been reinforcing rupiah exchange rate stabilization strategies through offshore NDF interventions in Asia, Europe, and New York markets since 7 April 2025, as well as spot and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) transactions in the domestic market. This policy response has yielded positive results, with the rupiah stabilizing and even appreciating. This strategy is supported by secondary market SBN purchases to maintain financial market stability and banking liquidity. As of 22 April 2025, BI has purchased IDR80.98 trillion in SBN: IDR54.98 trillion from the secondary market and IDR26.00 trillion from the primary market in the form of Treasury Bills (Surat Perbendaharan Negara/SPN). These purchases highlight the strong synergy between monetary and fiscal policy. Additionally, BI is strengthening pro-market monetary operations strategies by:
Government Regulation No. 8/2025, through:
17. Looser macroprudential policy is being strengthened to encourage bank lending/financing growth in support of sustainable economic growth, while maintaining financial system stability, including:
18. Payment system policy is geared toward supporting economic growth, especially in the trade and MSME sectors. The reliability of payment system infrastructure and industry structure continues to be strengthened, along with the expanded acceptance of digital payment systems. BI launched QRIS Tap (QRIS Without Scanning) on 14 March 2025, as a fast, easy, affordable, safe, and reliable payment method to support public services and digital retail transactions. BI also strengthened policy support for government programs, which included expanding cross-border QRIS and financial literacy for Indonesian Migrant Workers (Pekerja Migran Indonesia/PMI). Additionally, BI updated the QRIS pricing scheme for merchants under Public Service Agencies (Badan Layanan Umum/BLU) and Public Service Obligation (PSO) categories to support public services from 0.4% to 0%.
19. The stability of the national financial services sector remains intact despite rising global uncertainty, supported by strong capitalization, adequate liquidity, manageable risk profiles, and positive sectoral performance.
20. Banking intermediation continues to grow, accompanied by a sound risk profile. As of March 2025, loans disbursed by the banking industry grew by 9.16% year-on-year (yoy) to IDR7,908.4 trillion, driven by strong Investment Loans growth (13.36% yoy), followed by Consumer Loans (9.32% yoy) and Working Capital Loans (6.51% yoy). Credit quality remains stable, with gross Non-Performing Loans (NPL) at 2.17% and net NPL at 0.80%. Loans at Risk (LaR) remained relatively stable at 9.86% (February 2025: 9.77%). Meanwhile, banking third-party funds (DPK) grew by 4.75% yoy to IDR9,010 trillion, with current accounts, savings, and time deposits growing by 4.01%, 7.74% and 2.89% yoy, respectively.
21. Banking resilience remained strong, with the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in March 2025 recorded at 25.43%. Banking liquidity also remained adequate, with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio to Non-Core Deposit (AL/NCD) and Liquidity Coverage Ratio to Third-Party Funds (AL/DPK) recorded at 116.05% and 26.22% respectively—well above the respective regulatory thresholds of 50% and 10%.
22. Amid global economic sentiment, the domestic stock market demonstrated resilience in Q1 2025. The domestic stock market closed up by 3.83% mtd as of 27 March 2025, at 6,510.62 (ytd: down 8.04%), with market capitalization recorded at IDR11,126 trillion, up 2.27% mtd (down 9.80% ytd). Meanwhile, non-resident investors posted a net sell of IDR8.02 trillion mtd (ytd: net sell of IDR29.92 trillion). Following the Eid holiday, the stock market experienced high volatility, prompting a temporary trading halt on the first day of post-holiday trading on 8 April 2025. However, pressures have subsided significantly, and by 22 April 2025, the IDX Composite (IHSG) indicated positive movements, closing at 6,538.27 with a market cap of IDR11,354 trillion. Fundraising in the capital market remained positive in Q1 2025, with total public offerings reaching IDR59.83 trillion, including IDR3.24 trillion from five new issuers. There are also 77 public offering pipelines with an indicative value of IDR54.09 trillion.
23. In the Insurance, Guarantee, and Pension Fund sector (PPDP), total insurance industry assets as of February 2025 reached IDR1,141.71 trillion, growing 1.03% yoy. Commercial insurance performance (premium income accumulation) from January–February 2025 reached IDR60.27 trillion, a slight contraction of 0.94% yoy. However, capital in the commercial insurance industry remained solid as of February 2025, with Risk-Based Capital (RBC) in the life insurance industry at 466.40%, and general/reinsurance insurance at 317.88%—well above the 120% threshold. Pension fund assets as of February 2025 grew 5.94% yoy to IDR1,511.71 trillion, with voluntary pension funds reaching IDR381.13 trillion (up 2.36% yoy). Guarantees outstanding in February 2025 grew 1.44% yoy to IDR411.24 trillion, though total assets contracted 0.29% yoy to IDR46.59 trillion.
24. In the Financing Institution, Venture Capital Firm, Microfinance Institution, and Other Financial Service Institution (PVML) sector, the financing receivables of Finance Companies grew 5.92% yoy in February 2025 to IDR507.02 trillion, supported by investment financing which rose 12.98% yoy. Risk profiles remained healthy, with net non-performing financing (NPF) at 0.92% and gross NPF recorded at 2.87%. The gearing ratio of financing companies stood at 2.20x, far below the 10x cap. Though still contracting 0.93% yoy, Venture Capital financing improved with IDR16.34 trillion in total. In the fintech peer-to-peer (P2P) lending industry, outstanding financing grew 31.06% yoy to IDR80.07 trillion, with productive sector lending amounting to IDR7.60 trillion (28.25% of total P2P financing). The aggregate default rate (Tingkat Wanprestasi di atas 90 Hari/TWP90) remained manageable at 2.78%.
25. In response to increasing global market volatility affecting domestic markets, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) continues to monitor domestic stock market conditions. OJK has implemented several policy measures to maintain market stability, including:
26. Deposit insurance developments remained stable. As of February 2025, the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) guaranteed 99.94% of total commercial bank accounts (615,041,345 accounts), and 99.98% of BPR/BPRS accounts (15,594,738 accounts). For the Q1 2025 regular review (January 2025), LPS maintained the Deposit Insurance Rate (DIR) at 4.25% for rupiah deposits in commercial banks, 6.75% for rupiah deposits in BPR, and 2.25% for foreign currency deposits in commercial banks. These rates apply from 1 February to 31 May 2025, and are subject to adjustment in response to changes in market interest rates, banking conditions, and the broader economy.
27. LPS continues to safeguard financial system stability (SSK) and national economic performance through credible deposit insurance programs and effective bank resolution. LPS consistently monitors insurance coverage and evaluates DIR to align with deposit interest trends, bank liquidity, and national economic developments. LPS also coordinates with other authorities to handle banks and implement derivative regulations of the P2SK Act. Public awareness initiatives continue regarding LPS’s functions and authority. Starting in Q1 2025, LPS began collecting premiums from banks for Bank Restructuring Program (PRP) funding, as mandated by the P2SK Act and GR No. 34 of 2023.
28. LPS is also formulating policies to support financial sector development and strengthening, including fund placement and exercising its authority in PRP implementation. LPS is preparing regulations, business processes, infrastructure, and human capital in preparation for implementing the Insurance Policy Guarantee Program in 2028, as mandated by the P2SK Act.
29. KSSK remains committed to enhancing synergy and strengthening coordinated policy responses and vigilance to mitigate economic and national financial system stability risks. KSSK actively participates in policy formulation and anticipatory measures, including international coordination to address market volatility due to escalating trade wars. KSSK also supports the real sector and the Government’s Asta Cita agenda for sustainable economic growth.
30. The Government, Bank Indonesia, OJK, and LPS are committed to credibly completing derivative regulations of the P2SK Act, involving financial industry players and the public.
31. KSSK will hold its next regular meeting in July 2025.
For Further Information